The Flood Guidance Statement and Five-Day Forecasts

Every day, a small team of forecasters publishes a five-day flood forecast for England and Wales. It is called the Flood Guidance Statement, and each daily statement gives an assessment of the risk of flooding for the next five days¹. On most days it says very little is expected: the statement of 19 October 2026, for instance, put the overall flood risk for England and Wales at VERY LOW for the next five days². On other days it flags trouble ahead, as on 28 January 2026, when significant river flooding impacts were probable in parts of the South of England and the overall flood risk was MEDIUM³.

The statement is written for emergency responders rather than for the public, but it is freely readable, and it tells you something no other forecast does: whether flooding is expected anywhere in England and Wales over the coming five days, from which source, and whether the risk is rising or falling. For a household, it works best as an early heads-up. When it shows an increased risk, that is the moment to check your own property's risk, review your household flood plan and watch for the formal flood alerts and warnings that follow.

What the statement tells you about the next five days

The Flood Guidance Statement is a rolling five-day outlook. Each day's version states the overall flood risk for England and Wales, then breaks that down by the four sources of flooding: river, surface water, coastal and tidal, and groundwater. On 21 July 2026, for example, the river flood risk, the surface water flood risk, the coastal/tidal flood risk and the groundwater flood risk were all VERY LOW for the next five days, and so was the overall risk⁵. The statement of 12 June 2026 read the same way across every category⁷.

The numbers alone are only half the picture. The statement also says where impacts are expected, in plain geographical terms. The statement of 28 February 2026 reported ongoing minor river flooding impacts probable on the Somerset Levels and Moors, and significant groundwater flooding impacts probable in Dorset and possible in Wiltshire, with minor impacts probable for parts of Hampshire and West Sussex⁸. This is the detail a household can act on: if your area is named, the five-day lead time is enough to move valuables, check your flood protection products and make sure you know how to turn off gas, electricity and water.

Each statement also carries a "trend since last FGS" line, showing whether the risk for each day is steady, increased or decreased compared with the previous statement. On 7 October 2026 the trend was steady on Wednesday, increased Thursday, increased Friday, steady Saturday, steady Sunday⁹; on 14 October 2026 it was steady, steady, decreased, steady, steady⁴. A rising trend early in the five days is your cue to prepare before any formal warning arrives.

Statements are issued at 10:30hrs local time. The 14 October 2026 statement was issued at 10:30hrs on Wednesday 14 October 2026⁴, and the 19 October 2026 statement noted the next was due at 10:30hrs on Tuesday 20 October 2026². When conditions change quickly, the badge on a statement shows that Rapid Flood Guidance products may be issued on the day or days shown⁹, so a morning statement is not always the last word for that day.

Who the statement is written for, and why households can still use it

The statement is candid about its audience. Each one states: "This guidance is produced to support decision making by Category 1 and 2 emergency responders"⁴. Those are the emergency services, local authorities and other organisations with duties under the Civil Contingencies Act, and the Met Office has a key role under that Act to provide information to Category 1 and 2 responders as well as to warn and inform the public around severe weather¹⁰. In Scotland, the same daily statement goes to Category 1 and 2 agencies such as emergency responders, local authorities, other organisations with flooding management duties and recognised community responders, including the Scottish Flood Forum and the RNLI¹.

None of that stops a household reading it. The categories and matrix take a few minutes to learn, the areas at risk are named in plain English, and the five-day view is longer than the formal warning system, which operates only when flooding is expected or happening. Used alongside the services designed for you, it fills the gap between "nothing is happening now" and "a warning has been issued".

The services designed for households are the ones to rely on day to day. Floodline can be used by households and businesses who are at risk of flooding¹¹, and the government's advice is to sign up for flood warnings if your home or business is at risk of flooding¹². SEPA is blunt about where responsibility sits: "It is your responsibility to manage your own flood risk and protect yourself, your family, property or business"¹³. The statement tells you when to look; the warning services tell you whether your street is affected.

The Flood Forecasting Centre: a joint Environment Agency and Met Office service

The statement is produced by the Flood Forecasting Centre, which Derbyshire County Council describes plainly: "This is a joint operation between the Environment Agency and Met Office"¹⁴. That pairing is what makes the five-day view possible. Flood risk depends on both the weather coming and the state of rivers, ground and tides, so the Met Office's forecasts and the Environment Agency's hydrological knowledge are combined into a single daily assessment. Local authorities use it the same way: Derbyshire receives severe weather warnings from the Met Office and more detailed extreme rainfall alerts and flood guidance statements from the Flood Forecasting Centre¹⁴.

The same partnership model runs across the UK, with different bodies in the lead. In Scotland, the Met Office provides dedicated forecasting services to SEPA's flood warning team¹⁵. In Northern Ireland, the Met Office works with the Rivers Agency, the Department for Infrastructure and NI Water to forecast areas where floods are likely¹⁶. In England, flood warnings come from the Environment Agency¹⁷, and the Met Office points households to the right body for each nation: the Environment Agency for England, NI Direct for Northern Ireland, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency for Scotland and Natural Resources Wales for Wales¹⁰.

For professional enquiries, the statement lists a contact for the Flood Forecasting Centre Duty Hydrometeorologist, 0330 135 4400⁶. That number is for responders and organisations; a household wanting warnings for its own home should use the sign-up services described later in this page.

Reading the risk level: from very low to severe

The overall flood risk is read from a matrix that crosses two scales. The likelihood scale runs VERY LOW, LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH³; the impact scale runs MINIMAL, MINOR, SIGNIFICANT, SEVERE³; and the resulting overall risk levels are MINIMAL, VERY LOW, LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH, SEVERE⁵. In plain terms, the forecasters are judging how likely flooding is and how bad it would be if it happened, then publishing the combination.

Two things are worth watching when you read a statement. The first is the difference between "possible" and "probable". The 19 October 2026 statement, while overall VERY LOW, noted that moderate inland flooding impacts were possible but not expected across parts of England and Wales on Thursday and Friday, and moderate coastal flooding impacts were possible but not expected in parts of England on Friday due to large waves and high water levels². "Possible but not expected" means the risk is real but low; it is a prompt to stay informed, not to act.

The second is the trend line. The 28 January 2026 statement, at MEDIUM overall, showed a steady trend across its five days³; the 19 October 2026 statement showed steady Monday and Tuesday, steady Wednesday, increased Thursday, increased Friday². An increase mid-week in a statement issued on a Monday gives you several days of notice, which is precisely the value of a five-day forecast.

What minor, significant and severe impacts look like on the ground

The impact scale is the part of the statement that translates most directly into what you would see. A MINOR impact means isolated and minor flooding of low-lying land and roads, isolated spray or waves on coastal promenades, and little or no disruption to travel, but wet road surfaces⁹. A SIGNIFICANT impact means flooding affecting parts of communities, possible danger to life and damage to buildings or structures, and disruption to travel and key sites in flood plans⁹. A SEVERE impact means danger to life, severe disruption to travel, widespread flooding affecting whole communities, widespread disruption or loss of infrastructure, and large scale evacuation of properties possible¹⁸.

The statement also describes the mechanism, not just the level. The 6 October 2026 statement warned that moderate surface water flooding impacts were possible for parts of England that Tuesday and more widely across England on Wednesday, and that impacts could include localised flooding from urban and fast responding smaller watercourses and catchments, drains, channels and flooding from overland flow⁶. That is the signature of surface water flooding: it arrives quickly with heavy rain rather than building up over days in a river.

For context on what the formal warnings mean when they follow, Nottinghamshire's guidance sets out the impacts behind them: a Flood Warning means flooding of homes and businesses, flooding of roads with major impacts, significant waves and spray on the coast, and extensive flood plain inundation including caravan parks or campsites¹⁹. A Severe Flood Warning means deep and fast flowing water, debris in the water causing danger, potential or observed collapse of buildings and structures, communities isolated by flood waters, and a large number of evacuees¹⁹. Our page on flood alerts, flood warnings and severe flood warnings explains those in full.

Four sources of flooding the statement covers

The statement assesses each source of flooding separately, because they behave differently and need different responses. Flooding in England comes from rivers, the sea, surface water (rain) and groundwater²⁰.

The distinction matters to a household because the warning routes differ. For surface water flooding, the best alert system is the Met Office's severe weather alerts system, which lets you know about the heavy rain that causes it²¹, with Android and Apple apps available to download. River, coastal and groundwater flooding are covered by the Environment Agency's flood warning service, which you can sign up to if your home or organisation in England is at risk¹⁷. Our page on the types of flooding goes into each in more detail.

Met Office rain warnings and what to do when one is issued

The Met Office issues local weather warnings based on the level of impacts and the likelihood of them occurring²², using a colour-coded system to show the likelihood and effects of expected severe weather²³. When a rain warning covers your area, the Met Office's advice is to follow its three-point plan: check if your property is at risk of flooding, and if at risk prepare a flood plan and an emergency flood kit²⁴. Our checklist for when a flood warning is issued and our guide to making a household flood plan walk through those steps.

1. Check whether your property is in a flood risk area, and sign up for flood warnings by text, phone or email²⁵.
2. Prepare a flood plan and an emergency flood kit; the fire and rescue service advice includes warm, waterproof clothes and blankets in that kit²⁶.
3. Check the weather forecast regularly; the Met Office provides forecasts for locations around the country²³.
4. If flooding is forecast, be aware of flood risk by signing up for flood warnings at Check for Flooding on GOV.UK²².
5. If a warning escalates, turn off your gas, electricity and water supplies if it is safe to do so²⁷.

If you have to drive while a rain warning is in force, the fire and rescue service advises using dipped headlights in heavy rain and flooding²⁶. If the situation becomes serious, the Met Office's seasonal advice is clear about what not to do: do not go into attic spaces to avoid being trapped by rising water, and if you are trapped by floodwater or affected by fast flowing or deep water, call 999 and wait for help²⁴. If you are worried about your health or that of somebody you know, ring NHS 111²⁴. If the emergency services tell you to evacuate, leave the area²⁷. For what warnings mean for storms more broadly, see our guide to storms, snow and ice.

There is a longer-term reason to keep this habit. According to the Met Office, the UK is likely to have hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters, and the Met Office has charted higher annual temperatures, increased days with very heavy rainfall and record-breaking high temperatures since the 1961 to 1990 period²⁸. Extreme weather events such as heatwaves and heavy downpours are likely to become more frequent and more intense²⁸. Checking the forecast and the statement regularly is a small routine that earns its keep as the weather becomes less predictable.

Never walk, drive or swim through floodwater

Every official source in this field gives the same instruction, and it deserves its own heading. The government's flood help page says do not walk, cycle or drive through flood water²⁷. West Midlands Ambulance Service puts it more broadly: "It is not safe to drive, walk or swim through floodwater."²⁵ London's guidance is equally direct: "Never drive through flood water."²¹

The reasons are practical, not fussiness. Floodwater can be deep and fast flowing, can carry debris that causes danger, and can hide open manholes and damaged road surfaces¹⁹. A Severe Flood Warning means there is a danger to life²⁰. If you want the full picture, our page on whether it is safe to walk or drive through floodwater covers depth, current and what lies beneath the surface.

Where to check the latest flood risk and warnings

The statement is the five-day view; for what is happening now, use the live services. In England, get flood warnings from the Environment Agency if your home or organisation is at risk, by text, phone or email¹⁷. In Scotland, SEPA's live flooding information is available at floodline.sepa.org.uk/floodupdates for the latest local weather and flood updates²⁹, and you can register for free advance notice of flooding direct to your phone by calling Floodline on 0345 988 1188¹. In Northern Ireland, the flooding incident line is 0300 200 0100¹⁶.

For weather warnings, the Met Office says you can sign up to its email alerts or download its Weather App to ensure you are always updated with the very latest forecast details¹⁰. Surrey's resilience guidance also lists the Met Office on social media at @metoffice³⁰. Know who to contact if flooding happens in your area¹³; our page on who to report flooding to covers that.

Finally, check your own property's risk rather than relying on the national picture. Check your flood risk and sign up to flood alerts at www.gov.uk/check-flood-risk³⁰, and view the flood maps for your area³¹. Our guide to checking your home's flood risk by postcode explains how to read them, and if you are not yet signed up, our page on how to sign up for free flood warnings takes you through it step by step.