The Flood Forecasting Centre issued its Flood Guidance Statement at 10:30hrs on Saturday 28 February 2026, setting the overall flood risk for England and Wales at MEDIUM for the following five days1. The statement reports significant groundwater flooding impacts as probable in Dorset and possible in Wiltshire, with minor river flooding impacts probable in parts of the Midlands until Sunday1.
By type of flooding, the statement gives the groundwater flood risk as MEDIUM for the next five days, the river flood risk as LOW, and both the surface water and coastal/tidal flood risks as VERY LOW1. Minor groundwater flooding impacts are also probable for parts of Hampshire and West Sussex, and possible elsewhere in the South of England due to high, and steadily rising, levels1. Ongoing minor river flooding impacts remain probable on the Somerset Levels and Moors for the next five days, and minor river flooding impacts are possible but not expected more widely across parts of England and Wales today, continuing through to Tuesday in England only1.
The statement's specific areas of concern set out the following:
| Area | Impact | Likelihood | Source | Likely duration | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Minor | Medium | River | 2 days | High river levels following heavy rain |
| B | Significant | Medium | Ground | 5+ days | High groundwater levels in Dorset |
| C | Significant | Low | Ground | 5+ days | High groundwater levels in Dorset and Wiltshire |
| D | Minor | Medium | River | 5+ days | Ongoing river impacts in Somerset Levels and Moors |
| E | Minor | Medium | Ground | 5+ days | High groundwater levels in Hampshire and West Sussex |
| F | Minor | Low | Ground | 5+ days | Steady or rising high groundwater levels |
The statement defines significant impacts as flooding affecting parts of communities, with possible danger to life and damage to buildings or structures, and disruption to travel and key sites in flood plans1. Minor impacts are defined as localised flooding of land and roads, flooding affecting individual properties, and disruption to travel and key sites in flood plans1.
"The overall ood risk is MEDIUM."
Why it matters for households
The statement is produced to support decision making by Category 1 and 2 emergency responders1. For households, the areas named are Dorset, Wiltshire, Hampshire, West Sussex, the Somerset Levels and Moors, and parts of the Midlands and the wider South of England1. Groundwater flooding is the dominant concern: the statement describes high, and steadily rising, levels in parts of the South of England, and gives a likely duration of five days or more for the groundwater areas of concern1. The groundwater guide explains why this type of flooding lasts, and the types of flooding guide sets out how river, surface water and groundwater flooding differ. For Wales, Natural Resources Wales issues its own warnings and risk maps. The statement notes that minor river flooding impacts are possible but not expected more widely across parts of England and Wales today1.
The statement does not itself issue flood alerts or warnings. The guide to flood alerts, flood warnings and severe flood warnings explains the difference, and Floodline numbers for England, Scotland and Wales lists the numbers to call. Households in a flood risk area can read about home insurance and Flood Re, and about flood doors and flood windows. The checklist for when a flood warning is issued sets out the steps authorities and responders recommend at that stage.
What happens next
The next statement is due at 10:30hrs on Sunday 1 March 2026, with all times local1. The trend since the previous statement is recorded as increased for Saturday and Sunday, steady for Monday, increased for Tuesday and steady for Wednesday1.
Sources (1)
- assets.ffc-environment-agency.fgs.metoffice.gov.uk, assets.ffc-environment-agency.fgs.metoffice.gov.uk
Flood Guidance Statement
Groundwater Flooding
