The Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) issued its Flood Guidance Statement (FGS) at 10:30hrs on Sunday 8 February 2026, setting the overall flood risk for England and Wales at MEDIUM for the next five days1. The statement reports that significant groundwater flooding impacts are probable in Dorset and Wiltshire, with significant river flooding impacts possible in Somerset1. The trend since the previous statement was recorded as increased for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, and steady for Wednesday and Thursday1.
On groundwater, the FGS states: "The groundwater flood risk is MEDIUM for the next five days." Significant impacts are probable in parts of Dorset and Wiltshire, with minor impacts probable for parts of Hampshire and West Sussex over the same period1. Minor groundwater flooding impacts are also possible but not expected in other parts of England, owing to steadily rising levels1.
On rivers, the statement says: "The river flood risk is LOW for the next five days." Significant river flooding impacts are possible in the Somerset Levels for the next five days, and minor river flooding impacts are probable in Worcestershire and Gloucestershire and across parts of the Midlands until Tuesday1. Minor river impacts are possible across parts of the Midlands and the North East of England through Sunday and Monday, and possible but not expected more widely across parts of England and Wales until Wednesday1.
Surface water flood risk is LOW on Monday, with minor surface water flooding impacts probable in parts of England and Wales on Monday and possible on Tuesday, and also possible in parts of England on Sunday1. The FGS says impacts "could include localised flooding from urban and fast responding smaller watercourses/catchments, drains, channels and flooding from overland flow"1. Coastal and tidal flood risk is VERY LOW for the next five days1.
The statement's areas of concern set out the following risk areas1:
| Risk area | Source | Impact | Likelihood | Duration |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A: High groundwater levels (Dorset and Wiltshire) | Ground | Significant | Medium | 5+ days |
| B: Ongoing river impacts in Somerset Levels | River | Significant | Low | 5+ days |
| C: High groundwater levels in Hampshire and West Sussex | Ground | Minor | Medium | 5+ days |
| D: Continued river response until Tuesday | River | Minor | Medium | 3 days |
| E: Risk of river flooding impacts, mainly on the Trent and Soar | River | Minor | Medium | 3 days |
| G: Heavy showers at times could bring minor surface water flooding impacts on Sunday | Surface | Minor | Low | 1 day |
The FGS is produced to support decision making by Category 1 and 2 emergency responders, according to the document's footer1. The statement's 6 to 10 day forecast says unsettled conditions are expected to continue with further low pressure systems from the southwest, and that areas which have seen the most rainfall recently are most likely to see further heavy rain, which "could lead to significant inland flooding impacts at times"1.
Why it matters for households
The statement covers England and Wales for the five days from Sunday 8 to Thursday 12 February 20261. Households in Dorset and Wiltshire face probable significant groundwater impacts, and those in the Somerset Levels possible significant river impacts, over that period1. Minor river impacts are probable in Worcestershire and Gloucestershire and parts of the Midlands until Tuesday, and minor groundwater impacts are probable in parts of Hampshire and West Sussex1. The FGS describes significant impacts in its risk matrix as flooding affecting parts of communities, with possible danger to life and damage to buildings or structures, and disruption to travel and key sites in flood plans1. The FGS does not itself issue flood warnings to the public; it is produced to support Category 1 and 2 emergency responders1. The Flood Guidance Statement and Five-Day Forecasts guide explains how the FGS relates to household warnings, and Flood Alerts, Flood Warnings and Severe Flood Warnings sets out the warning levels. Groundwater flooding is covered in Groundwater Flooding: Why It Lasts and What Helps, and the different sources of flooding in Types of Flooding: River, Sea, Surface Water and Groundwater. For Wales, see Wales: Natural Resources Wales Warnings and Risk Maps, and for telephone numbers Floodline Numbers for England, Scotland and Wales. The Checklist When a Flood Warning Is Issued and Flooding: A Household Guide cover household preparation.
What happens next
The next statement is due at 10:30hrs on Monday 9 February 2026, with all times local1.
Sources (1)
- assets.ffc-environment-agency.fgs.metoffice.gov.uk, assets.ffc-environment-agency.fgs.metoffice.gov.uk
Flood Guidance Statement
