Significant river flooding impacts probable in parts of the South of England

The Flood Forecasting Centre issued its Flood Guidance Statement at 15:30hrs on Wednesday 28 January 2026, putting the overall flood risk at MEDIUM and stating that significant river flooding impacts are probable in parts of the South of England today¹. The statement covers the period from Wednesday 28 January to Sunday 1 February 2026, with the trend since the previous statement recorded as steady across all five days¹.

The statement sets out the risk areas by impact, likelihood, source and likely duration¹:

For Risk Area A the statement records ongoing impacts following recent heavy rain, and for Risk Area B ongoing minor river impacts probable from recent heavy rain¹. Risk Area D covers ongoing river impacts in the Somerset Levels, and Risk Area I covers high and rising groundwater levels¹.

On surface water, the statement puts the risk at LOW on Thursday and into early Friday, with minor surface water flooding impacts expected for parts of England on Thursday and into early Friday morning; impacts could include localised flooding from urban and fast responding smaller watercourses and catchments, drains and channels, and flooding from overland flow¹. The groundwater flood risk is VERY LOW for the next five days, and the coastal and tidal flood risk is also VERY LOW for the next five days, with minimal coastal impacts possible along some English coasts on Friday and Saturday due to large waves, including isolated spray on low-lying roads and coastal promenades¹.

The statement says significant river flooding impacts are also possible but not expected in parts of England on Thursday and into early Friday morning, and that minor river flooding impacts are probable across parts of the South of England from today until Sunday¹. Minor river flooding impacts are possible elsewhere across parts of England from today until Friday, and for parts of Wales on Thursday and Friday¹.

The statement notes that it is produced to support decision making by Category 1 and 2 emergency responders¹.

Why it matters for households

The statement covers river, surface water, groundwater and coastal flooding across parts of England and Wales from Wednesday 28 January to Sunday 1 February 2026¹. Households in the South of England are in the area where significant river flooding impacts are probable today, and minor river flooding impacts are probable there until Sunday¹. Elsewhere in parts of England, minor river flooding impacts are possible from today until Friday, and in parts of Wales on Thursday and Friday¹. Minor surface water flooding impacts are expected for parts of England on Thursday and into early Friday morning, with localised flooding from urban and fast responding smaller watercourses and catchments, drains and channels, and from overland flow¹. In the Somerset Levels, ongoing river impacts are recorded under Risk Area D from Friday to Sunday¹. The statement records high and rising groundwater levels under Risk Area I from Wednesday to Sunday¹.

The statement does not itself give advice to households; it is produced to support decision making by Category 1 and 2 emergency responders¹. The guide to flood alerts, flood warnings and severe flood warnings explains the warning levels used in the UK, and the guide to types of flooding sets out the difference between river, sea, surface water and groundwater flooding. The Flood Guidance Statement and five-day forecasts page explains how the statement is produced and what its risk levels mean.

What happens next

The next statement is due at 10:30hrs on Thursday 29 January 2026, with all times local¹. The 6 to 10 day forecast in the statement says unsettled conditions are expected to continue with further low pressure systems from the southwest, that areas which have seen the most rainfall recently are those most likely to see further heavy rain during this period, and that this could lead to significant inland flooding impacts¹. The household guide to flooding covers practical preparation, and the flooding hub collects the site's related guides.