Moderate surface water flooding impacts possible in parts of England

The Flood Forecasting Centre issued a Flood Guidance Statement at 10:30hrs on Tuesday 6 October 2026 warning that moderate surface water flooding impacts are possible for parts of England that day, and more widely across England on Wednesday¹. A statement issued at 10:30hrs on Wednesday 7 October repeated the warning for England that day and added that moderate surface water impacts are also possible but not expected in parts of Wales overnight Thursday into Friday².

The overall flood risk for England and Wales for the next five days is described as VERY LOW in both statements¹. The surface water, river, coastal/tidal and groundwater flood risks are each given as VERY LOW for the next five days¹. The Wednesday statement also records that moderate river flooding impacts are possible but not expected in parts of Wales overnight Thursday into Friday².

The statements set out what moderate impacts can involve. The Flood Guidance Statement says impacts could include localised flooding from urban and fast responding smaller watercourses and catchments, drains and channels, and flooding from overland flow¹. Its summary of potential impacts describes moderate impacts as localised flooding of land and roads, flooding affecting individual properties, and disruption to travel and key sites in flood plans².

The two statements describe the weather behind the risk slightly differently. The Tuesday statement refers to heavy, slow moving showers possible in its area of concern for that day, and to heavy rain with some embedded heavy downpours possible for Wednesday¹. The Wednesday statement refers to heavy rain with some embedded heavy downpours possible². Both statements show a risk area with moderate impact and medium likelihood, from a surface water source, with a likely duration of one day¹.

The statements are produced to support decision making by Category 1 and 2 emergency responders¹. Both carry a badge indicating that Rapid Flood Guidance products may be issued on the days shown¹.

Why it matters for households

The warning covers parts of England on Tuesday 6 October and a wider area of England on Wednesday 7 October, with a lower likelihood of moderate surface water and river impacts in parts of Wales overnight Thursday into Friday¹. The types of flooding named are surface water, including overland flow and flooding from drains, channels and fast responding smaller watercourses, rather than river, coastal or groundwater flooding, which are all rated VERY LOW for the five days¹. The stated possible consequences for households are localised flooding of land and roads, flooding affecting individual properties, and disruption to travel and key sites in flood plans². The statements do not give advice to households; the guidance is produced to support decision making by Category 1 and 2 emergency responders¹. The Flood Guidance Statement and Five-Day Forecasts page explains how the statement is used, and Types of Flooding: River, Sea, Surface Water and Groundwater sets out the difference between the categories rated here. Flood Alerts, Flood Warnings and Severe Flood Warnings covers the warnings that may follow, and Flooding: A Household Guide covers household preparation.

What happens next

The next statement was due at 10:30hrs on Wednesday 7 October 2026, and the Wednesday statement gives the following one as due at 10:30hrs on Thursday 8 October 2026, all times local¹. The Flood Forecasting Centre duty hydrometeorologist can be contacted on 0330 135 4400¹.