The Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC), a joint Met Office and Environment Agency service, issued a Flood Guidance Statement at 10:30 on Thursday 1 October 2026 stating that moderate inland flooding impacts are possible for Cumbria on Friday and into Saturday1. The overall flood risk for England and Wales is very low for the next five days1.
For surface water, the statement rates the risk as very low across England and Wales for the five days, but says moderate surface water flooding impacts are possible in Cumbria on Friday. It attributes this to rain, heavy at times, becoming slow moving across the area. Impacts could include localised flooding from urban and fast responding smaller watercourses and catchments, drains and channels, and flooding from overland flow1. The risk area is given an impact rating of moderate, a likelihood of medium, a source of surface water and a likely duration of two days1.
For rivers, the risk is also very low overall for the five days, with moderate river flooding impacts "possible but not expected" for Cumbria on Friday into Saturday, again because of heavy rain becoming slow moving across the area1. Coastal, tidal and groundwater flood risks are all rated very low for the next five days1.
The statement records a change to how risk is described:
"From today, changes to the ood risk matrix have been implemented. 'Moderate' now replaces 'Minor', but maintains the same de nitions previously used to describe minor impacts."
Under the matrix in the statement, moderate impacts include localised flooding of land and roads, flooding affecting individual properties, and disruption to travel and key sites in flood plans1. The statement is produced to support decision making by Category 1 and 2 emergency responders1.
| Area | Hazard | Timing | Impact | Likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cumbria | Surface water | Friday 2 October, likely duration 2 days | Moderate | Medium |
| Cumbria | Rivers | Friday into Saturday | Moderate (possible but not expected) | Not stated |
| England and Wales | All sources | Next five days | Very low overall | Not stated |
Why it matters for households
The statement covers Friday 2 October and the following days, and names Cumbria as the only area where impacts above very low are possible1. The impacts described for a moderate rating include localised flooding of land and roads and flooding affecting individual properties, with disruption to travel and key sites in flood plans1. The FFC describes the overall risk for England and Wales as very low for the next five days1. The statement does not give rainfall totals, specific river levels or named locations within Cumbria, and no flood alerts or warnings for the area are reported in it. The Environment Agency's flood warnings service is separate from this guidance, which is written for emergency responders1.
What happens next
The next Flood Guidance Statement is due at 10:30 on Friday 2 October 2026, with all times local1. The FFC duty hydrometeorologist can be contacted on 0330 135 44001. Households can check current alerts and warnings through the Environment Agency's flood warnings service, and the Flood Guidance Statement explains how the five-day outlook is put together. The guide to types of flooding sets out the difference between surface water and river flooding, and the household flooding guide covers practical preparation.
Sources (1)
- assets.ffc-environment-agency.fgs.metoffice.gov.uk, assets.ffc-environment-agency.fgs.metoffice.gov.uk
Types of Flooding
Flood Guidance Statement
