Met Office forecasts building heat across the UK

The Met Office reported on 6 July 2022 that high pressure would dominate the UK over the coming days, bringing warm and dry weather for many until early next week. In its announcement the forecaster said temperatures would climb day on day, with the peak likely on Tuesday, when values could reach the low 30s Celsius in part of England and Wales and the high 20s elsewhere.

From Friday and over the weekend, the Met Office said temperatures would be in the mid-to-high 20s Celsius for many. The far northwest was expected to stay cloudier and cooler with rain at times. Met Office meteorologist and presenter Alex Deakin said the strong July sunshine and high pressure were building the heat through Sunday and Monday, with temperatures likely to be over 30 Celsius and perhaps going up a notch further by Tuesday.

Whether the spell counts as an official heatwave depends on regional thresholds. The Met Office said specific thresholds, based on the region, must be met for three days running. Areas with lower thresholds, especially southwest England and south Wales, were more likely to reach heatwave criteria from Thursday onwards. Elsewhere, with higher thresholds, the chance of an official heatwave was more marginal, although it was possible those areas could reach their thresholds from Sunday.

Why it matters for households

The Met Office said heat can be very dangerous, especially for children, older people and those with underlying health conditions. Matthew Killick, Director of Crisis Response and Community Resilience at the British Red Cross, said a worrying number of people are not aware of the risks around hot weather. He said that in England alone there were more than 2,500 excess deaths in the summer of 2020, and that heat-related deaths in the UK are predicted to treble within 30 years. He also said climate change means longer and more intense heatwaves. The Met Office pointed readers to its WeatherReady advice on looking after yourself in hot weather and to the British Red Cross website. Households can find wider preparation guidance in the heatwaves and drought hub.

What happens next

The Met Office said much of next week was likely to see further sunny and warm weather, especially across southern parts of the UK, but how high temperatures will get was not clear at that stage. Alex Deakin said the most likely scenario was staying in the warm or warmer than average zone, with a possibility the heat could build further towards the end of next week. The Met Office directed people to its website, social media channels and mobile app for the latest forecast, and to its weather warning page for current warnings.