The Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) published the National Flood Risk Assessment (NFRA) 2025 on 18 December 20251. The assessment gives a national picture of flood risk in Scotland and states that around 400,000 properties, described as homes, businesses and vital services, are in areas at medium risk of flooding1.
SEPA says that figure is 1 in 8 properties across Scotland, a sharp rise from 284,000 in its 2018 assessment1. It adds that comparisons with 2018 are not straightforward because property data, climate projections and modelling methods have all improved1. The statistics refer to the medium likelihood of flooding scenario, which SEPA describes as having an 0.5% annual probability of occurring1. The assessment also reports, for the first time, where flooding will be deepest, with deep flooding defined as a depth of 30cm or more1.
By 2100, SEPA projects that climate change could push the number of properties at medium risk to 634,0001. It says surface water and small watercourses will drive the biggest increase in absolute numbers, adding over 200,000 properties to the risk map, while coastal flooding will see the largest proportional rise as sea levels rise and storm surges intensify, with risk from the sea projected to more than double1. River flooding will also increase, with homes in high-risk zones expected to double by the end of the century1. SEPA estimates that flooding already costs Scotland around £500 million every year, and says that figure could grow1.
"Today: around 400,000 properties - homes, businesses, and vital services - are in areas at medium risk of flooding."
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Properties at medium risk today | around 400,000 (1 in 8) |
| Properties at medium risk in 2018 assessment | 284,000 |
| Projected properties at medium risk by 2100 | 634,000 |
| Estimated annual cost of flooding to Scotland | around £500 million |
Why it matters for households
The assessment covers the whole of Scotland, and SEPA describes flooding as Scotland's most severe climate-related risk1. Households in areas identified as at medium risk are those in the 400,000 figure, and the projected increase to 634,000 by 2100 indicates that more properties are expected to fall within these areas over time. SEPA says the assessment will shape the next cycle of flood risk management planning, including the identification of Potentially Vulnerable Areas, the communities that need action most1. The NFRA data itself will be published in 20261. SEPA's flooding guide sets out household preparation in more detail, and its flood warnings page explains the difference between Flood Alerts, Flood Warnings and Severe Flood Warnings.
What happens next
SEPA says NFRA data will be published in 20261. The assessment is the evidence base for National Flood Risk Management Plans in 2027 and Local Flood Risk Management Plans in 20281. The full National Flood Risk Assessment 2025 report is available from SEPA as a PDF1.
