The Met Office has warned there is an increased likelihood of wetter than normal conditions across the country during late autumn and early winter, in a warning reported on 12 October 20261. The same report says the Government is launching a new taskforce to prepare Britain for extreme weather, with an initial focus on preparing the nation for potential flooding this winter1.
The Met Office has said it is currently not possible to predict where in the country will be affected by flooding this year, but has warned of an increased risk1. The report links the wetter outlook to El Niño, described as a periodic warming in ocean temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific that affects weather patterns across the globe1. According to Environment Agency (EA) figures cited in the report, 6.3 million homes and businesses in England are at risk of flooding1. Of these, 218,143 homes are at high risk of flooding from rivers and seas, while 827,612 are at risk of surface water flooding1. Surface water flooding happens when heavy rainfall overwhelms drains and sewers, leaving water with nowhere to go, and is the type most commonly associated with flash flooding, as water builds up quickly on roads, pavements and other low-lying areas, often with little warning1.
The report names the local authorities with the highest numbers of properties at high risk of surface water flooding, based on EA data1:
| Local authority | Properties at high risk of surface water flooding |
|---|---|
| Sefton, Merseyside | 29,596 (21 per cent) |
| Thurrock | 22,736 |
| Bristol | 19,077 |
| Hackney | 18,176 |
| Haringey | 15,248 |
Many London boroughs are at high risk of surface water flooding due to large areas of impermeable surfaces, such as roads, pavements and buildings1. For flooding from seas and rivers, East Riding of Yorkshire has the highest number of homes at risk (10,122), followed by North Yorkshire (6,589) and East Lindsey (4,964)1.
The report says the taskforce will meet on Wednesday, led by floods and drought minister Emma Hardy with representatives from over 50 organisations, including the EA, Met Office, Fire and Rescue Services, and the farming and water industry1. A target has been set to provide 200,000 properties with better flood protection up to 2028-29 through a range of measures, including flood defences and natural methods such as rain gardens1.
"The Government is announcing a series of measures this week as part of Flood Action Week, including the new Flood and Drought Resilience Taskforce."
Why it matters for households
The warning covers the whole country, but the Met Office says it cannot yet say where flooding will occur this year1. The households most directly affected are those in the 6.3 million homes and businesses in England that the EA counts as at risk of flooding, including the 218,143 at high risk from rivers and seas and the 827,612 at risk from surface water1. Surface water flooding can build up quickly on roads and pavements with little warning, which the report associates with flash flooding1. The report notes that despite the flood warnings, over two thirds of England remains in drought following an exceptionally hot, dry summer, and that drought does not end until there is a prolonged period of steady rainfall to refill reservoirs and rivers, while flooding can happen after a single extreme weather event1. It also states that climate change is increasing the likelihood of hotter, drier summers and milder, wetter winters in the UK, alongside more intense rainfall events1. Households can check current Flood Alerts, Flood Warnings and Severe Flood Warnings and read the site's flooding hub for background; the report itself gives no further advice to households.
What happens next
The new Flood and Drought Resilience Taskforce meets on Wednesday, chaired by floods and drought minister Emma Hardy, with more than 50 organisations represented1. The Government is announcing a series of measures during Flood Action Week, including the taskforce1. The stated target is better flood protection for 200,000 properties up to 2028-291. No further dates for the Met Office outlook have been reported.
